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New article: Quo vadis, smallholder forest landscape?

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An introduction to the LPB-RAP model · LaForeT-R2 WP6 „Landscape Modelling and Policy Scenarios“ LPB-RAP model published open-access and open source

Scenario RAP (Restoration Area Potentials) "potential FLR (forest landscape restoration)" landscape configuration in 2050

Scenario RAP (Restoration Area Potentials) "potential FLR (forest landscape restoration)" landscape configuration in 2050

In response to the challenges of climate change and biodiversity loss, this study introduces the LPB-RAP (LaForeT-PLUC-BE model (Landscape Forestry in the Tropics – PCRaster Land Use Change – Biogeographic & Economic model; in short: LPB) and its thematic expansion module RAP (Restoration Areas Potentials)) model, a new tool aimed at informing ecosystem restoration efforts, applied landscape planning and policy-making through detailed, pixel-based long-term scenario simulation and analyses.

The LPB-RAP model projects future landscape scenarios by incorporating factors such as climate change, population growth, and land use changes and eventually suggests possible Forest and Landscape Restoration (FLR) measures. It uses dynamic, probabilistic modeling and simulates aggregated landscape configurations per time step with as well as without FLR interventions.

Our study, featuring a case study in Ecuador's Esmeraldas province, showcases LPB-RAP's capability as a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) for smallholder-dominated forest landscapes. It underlines the model's role in environmental management and emphasizes the need for subsequent on-site FLR investigations and stakeholder engagement.

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