We are showing different possible landscape configuration trajectories using a dynamic land use simulation tool on a yearly basis (i.e. a land use map is produced for every year based on the land use configuration of the prior timestep). Scenario simulations will be conducted using an updated version of the dynamic and probabilistic PCRaster Land Use Change (PLUC) model (Verstegen et al. 2012) called “LAFORET-PLUC-BE” [Landscape Forestry in the tropics – PCRaster Land Use Change – Biogeographic & Economic model].
LAFORET-PLUC-BE (LPB) will include additionally ecological (forest carbon storage, forest fragmentation) and economic impact assessment (opportunity costs). Model simulations will focus on smallholders’ land use dynamics using a spatial scale of 1 hectare.
The 36 LaForeT landscape tiles are subsumed into eight modelling regions following geographical and administrative system boundaries. Due to the cross-country approach, we rely mostly on global datasets for comparability, but rely on empirical data conducted by the different LaForeT work packages to specify regional conditions of e.g. crop area demands and crop yields among other. The LBP modelling approach is realized in three model stages, each one aiming to compare selected regions and landscapes in a cross-country fashion.